Man who has correctly predicted every US presidential election outcome in the past 40 years says Democrats should not drop BIDEN after debate disaster against TRUMP

Monday, July 01, 2024 - A political historian who has correctly predicted every general US election outcome for the past 40 years, was asked if the Democrat Party should dump Joe Biden after his terrible debate with Donald Trump last week Thursday.

After Biden's poor performance filled with gaffes, many in the Democratic party have started to play the blame game, citing Biden's advisors' poor debate prep to face Donald Trump with some calling for Biden to be replaced before the election.

American University's Dr Allan Lichtman, who has yet to make his official prediction about November's election, and previously said Trump's 34 felony convictions are likely not to impact the 2024 election, warned the Democrats not to get the 81-year-old Biden off the ticket.

'It's a huge mistake,' he told CNN. 'They're not doctors. They don't know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not.'

Dr. Lichtman said that so-called experts and pundits were saying the same thing about Ronald Reagan, who ran for a second term at the age of 73.

'He won 49 states, so this is all foolhardy nonsense,' he said.

'The same pundits who led us down the primrose path of 2016 are giving the Democrats horrible advice,' he said.

'At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness,' he said.

Lichtman's keys are based on simple true or false questions related to party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

The historian relies on a formula he developed with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok by analyzing elections dating back to 1860. He has used it to correctly predict the outcome of nine presidential elections since 1984.

Using 13 questions called 'keys,' Lichtman keeps his personal preferences out of his predictions and was one of the few able to correctly predict Trump would prevail in 2016 when polls and political commentators all favoured Democrat Hillary Clinton.

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