SHOCK on UHURU/ RUTO’s supporters as voter data shows they are going home in 2017News, Politics 00:00
... www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke suggests that the “Big Five” main ethnic groups comprising the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba make up 64 per cent of Kenya’s population, hence can influence the results of any presidential elections.
Out of these “Big Five”, the Kikuyu (8.2 million people) and Kalenjin (6.2 million) support the Jubilee party while the Luhya (6.6 million), Luo (5 million) and Kamba (4.8 million) support the CORD coalition.
The next six ethnic groups in ranking account for 26 per cent of the Kenya citizen population: Kenya Somali (2.9 million), Kisii (2.7 million), Mijikenda (2.4 million), Meru (2 million), Turkana (1.2 million) and Maasai (1 million).
Hence the top 11 ranked ethnic groups will have a projected population of more than 43 million in 2017, accounting for more than 90 per cent of Kenya’s population. Their estimated voter potential will be 17.4 million if 80 per cent voter registration is achieved or 19.6 million if 90 per cent is achieved.
Out of the top 11 ethnic groups, Jubilee controls only 3 ethnic groups with 6.6 million estimated voters if 80 per cent registration is achieved while CORD mostly controls 6 ethnic groups with 9.2 million estimated voters. A total estimated 1.5 million constitute the Maasai and Somali vote if 80 per cent registration is achieved.
CORD’s voters are projected to be 10.3 million, exceeding Jubilee’s 9 million if 80per cent voter registration is achieved. These figures are proportional to the percentage increase in voter registration with the margins increasing with higher voter registration.
All said and done, CORD is in a position to win the 2017 elections and the argument of tyranny of numbers does not hold water.
The tyranny of numbers narrative is a fallacy and an illusion that is well choreographed to box Kenyans into submission that Jubilee is undefeatable. Kenyans therefore have a date with destiny and a rare opportunity to set the country back on the recovery path and transformation for the generations to come.
CORD strongholds must maximise mobilisation, registration, voting and protecting the vote. The 2017 elections provide an opportunity for a clear win especially with the super alliance in the offing.
By AGNES ZANI
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